Prepay Analysis: 3 Emerging Refinance Trends Every Lender Should Watch

OBSERVATION: Speeds continue to bounce along in a fairly narrow band: conventional fixed-rate and jumbo speeds continue to wobble around their demographic lows, while governments and ARMs maintain their historical trend of being generally faster than conventionals.

Across our $5.7T dataset, the average coupon of all loans outstanding is 4.16%, with 84% of all mortgages carrying coupons below 6.00%. But beneath the surface, three notable dynamics are starting to emerge:

1. Demographics are Driving Action
   Some borrowers appear to be tiring of clinging to their low-rate mortgages. Life events—like job relocations or growing families—are pushing them to refinance despite the rate environment.

2. Cash-Out Refis are Leading the Way
   Approximately 75% of new loans fall into the cash-out category, suggesting that borrowers are tapping into their equity as a financial tool, rather than chasing rate savings.

3. More Loans Are “In the Money”
   About 16% of outstanding loans are now close to—or fully—“in the money,” signaling potential for increased refinance activity if rates shift favorably.

You can stay ahead of the market. At Level1Analytics®, we track these dynamics in real-time to help institutions make smarter MSR and whole-loan portfolio decisions. Want to know what this means for your book?

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